Despite decades of investment in prevention, treatment, and community mobilisation, HIV continues to spread widely, according to data from the National Syndemic Diseases Control Council (NSDCC), which captures the full scale of the epidemic. 

With 8,010 total new infections recorded across the top five counties in Kenya in 2025 alone, 549,524 total People Living with HIV (PLHIV), and a mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rate of 7.328 per cent, the data makes it clear that while Kenya has made meaningful progress, the virus is still spreading.  

Key groups such as children, teenagers, women, and the geographically concentrated communities of western Kenya and Nairobi remain most vulnerable to infection, and understanding the pattern of new infections is the foundation upon which the next phase of Kenya’s HIV response must be built. 

Kenya’s new HIV infections in 2025 reveal that the epidemic, while not accelerating, is far from contained. A 7.328 per cent MTCT rate means that nearly one in 10 children born to HIV-positive mothers is still acquiring the virus, a preventable tragedy that reflects persistent gaps in antenatal care coverage, ARV adherence, and PMTCT service delivery at the county level.  

Among the top five counties, Nairobi leads in general new infections, recording close to 3,000 new cases, followed by Migori, Kisumu, Homa Bay, and Siaya. This pattern places the lake region and the capital at the absolute centre of Kenya’s prevention challenge. 

Migori’s consistent dominance across nearly all infection categories including general new infections, the 15-24 years age group, and a high male-female disparity, makes it the single most urgent county for targeted HIV response.  

The male-female infection gap is most pronounced in Nairobi, as women and girls in urban settings face uniquely elevated transmission risk 

In the 15–24 age bracket, Nairobi leads new infections, followed closely by Migori and Kisumu, reflecting the compounded vulnerabilities of both urban density and lake region social dynamics. Among the 10–19 years age group, Migori records the highest new infections, with Nairobi, Kisumu, Homa Bay, and Siaya following.  

It is a deeply troubling signal that children are acquiring HIV at an age when they should be furthest from risk, pointing to failures in school-based HIV education, access to youth-friendly services, and protection from sexual exploitation and abuse. 

The male-female infection gap is most pronounced in Nairobi, where the difference between female and male new infections is the highest among the top five counties, reinforcing findings from the broader gender disparity dashboard that women and girls in urban settings face uniquely elevated transmission risk.  

Migori, Kisumu, Homa Bay, and Siaya follow with significant gender gaps of their own, consistent with the broader pattern of female vulnerability in the lake region driven by gender power imbalances, transactional relationships, and limited economic autonomy among young women. 

Kenya’s 2025 new infection data is both a progress report and a warning. The MTCT rate of 7.328 per cent, while lower than previous years, remains unacceptably high for a condition that is entirely preventable with consistent access to treatment and care.  

Migori’s dominance across infection categories demands an emergency-level, county-specific response not generic national programming, but deeply localised interventions that address the specific social, economic, and structural drivers of transmission in that region.  

Nairobi’s lead among the 10–19 years age group shows that urban environments, despite better healthcare access, are not immune to youth HIV transmission, likely driven by social vulnerabilities and risk behaviours unique to densely populated settings.  

Data analytics and visualisation by Stanley Njihia